China's livestock industry experienced significant divergence during the first half of 2026. While pig producers continued to face severe margin pressure, the beef cattle market entered a period of price recovery. Broiler production expanded and exports increased significantly, while the layer industry experienced substantial fluctuations in both inventories and egg prices.
The contrasting performance of pigs, beef cattle, broilers and layers highlights an increasingly differentiated livestock market, with production capacity, supply-demand conditions and profitability becoming the key factors shaping each segment.
The pig industry remained under considerable pressure during the first half of the year.
According to data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, national hog slaughter reached approximately 372 million head in H1 2026, up 1.7% year on year. Continued supply growth put downward pressure on prices, with the national average live hog price at approximately RMB 10.4/kg during the first half of the year. Prices remained mostly within the RMB 9–10/kg range during the second quarter, reaching their lowest levels in nearly a decade.
Profitability also remained weak across the industry. From September 2025 through July 2026, the average profit of farrow-to-finish farms remained negative for an extended period. Major listed pig producers also reported substantial expected losses for the first half of the year.
Nevertheless, supply-side adjustments are gradually becoming more visible. By the end of Q2, the national breeding sow population had declined to approximately 37.8 million head, approaching the government’s target level of 37.5 million head.
This suggests that the current cycle may be moving closer to a supply-demand rebalancing stage. However, a significant recovery in hog prices is likely to require further production capacity adjustments.
The beef cattle sector presented a sharp contrast to the pig industry.
During H1 2026, the average market price of beef cattle reached approximately RMB 28.47/kg, up 10.35% year on year, while mainstream domestic beef ex-factory prices increased by around 12.48% to RMB 64.82/kg.
The recovery has been primarily supported by a reduction in cattle inventories. China’s national cattle inventory stood at approximately 93.73 million head at the end of Q1 2026, down significantly from the level recorded in 2023.
At the same time, changes in beef import policies are expected to influence the domestic supply structure. The combination of domestic production adjustments and tighter control of imported beef supply could provide additional support for domestic cattle prices.
Market expectations therefore remain relatively positive for the beef cattle sector, with supply conditions likely to remain relatively tight in the second half of 2026.
The broiler industry showed a more balanced performance during the first half of the year.
National broiler production continued to increase, with broiler slaughter rising approximately 6.9% year on year and total meat production increasing by around 8.3%.
However, performance varied between different broiler categories. Yellow-feather broilers maintained relatively strong prices, while white-feather broilers continued to face pressure from comparatively abundant supply.
Exports were one of the strongest highlights of the sector. China’s cumulative chicken product exports reached approximately 673,400 tons in H1 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of more than 55%. Meanwhile, chicken imports declined significantly.
The strong export performance provides an additional growth driver for the domestic poultry industry. Looking ahead, restrictions on overseas breeding stock imports may also influence the future supply of commercial broiler chicks, potentially supporting upstream breeding companies.
The layer sector experienced one of the most volatile market patterns during the first half of 2026.
The national laying-hen population declined from approximately 1.312 billion birds in January to 1.279 billion in May, reaching the lowest level for the same period since 2021.
Egg prices subsequently experienced significant volatility. Prices climbed to approximately RMB 5.28/kg at the end of May before falling sharply over the following weeks.
By the end of June, the national laying-hen population in production had declined further to approximately 1.273 billion birds. A relatively high proportion of older hens has also reduced the effective production capacity of the industry.
At the same time, investment in new layer production capacity remained active, indicating that producers are preparing for future market opportunities.
With supply expected to remain relatively tight during the second half of the year and seasonal demand providing additional support, the layer industry may continue to experience relatively favorable market conditions, although price volatility is likely to remain high.
The livestock market is unlikely to follow a uniform recovery path during the second half of 2026.
The pig industry is expected to remain in the process of bottoming out, with meaningful price recovery dependent on further production capacity adjustments.
The beef cattle sector is likely to benefit from tighter supply and relatively firm beef prices.
The broiler industry should continue to benefit from expanding production and strong export demand, although domestic supply pressure may remain in some categories.
The layer sector is expected to maintain relatively tight supply conditions, with seasonal demand potentially supporting prices during the peak consumption period.
Overall, the first half of 2026 demonstrates that China’s livestock industry is entering a period of greater structural differentiation. For producers and companies across the animal nutrition value chain, controlling production costs, improving feed efficiency and strengthening operational efficiency will remain essential to navigating market cycles.
For feed and feed-additive companies, these changes also create different opportunities across species. Pig production remains focused on cost optimization, while cattle, poultry and aquaculture markets may offer more favorable opportunities in selected segments. As producers increasingly prioritize efficiency and cost control, high-quality feed ingredients, nutritional solutions and formulation technologies are expected to play an increasingly important role in improving animal performance and farm profitability.
